China coal imports could drop by up to 100 million tons in 2025, industry group says

BEIJING: China’s coal imports could drop by up to 100 million metric tons in 2025, an official at a major industry group said, potentially putting global benchmark prices - already at multi-year lows - under more pressure.

Imports by the world’s largest consumer, importer and producer of the fossil fuel rose to a record high of 542.7 million metric tons in 2024, as lower international coal prices spurred buyers to substitute imports for domestic supply.

But imports of the polluting fuel could fall by 50 million to 100 million tons in 2025, Xuegang Li, vice president at China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, told the Coaltrans China conference on Wednesday. Imports were 8% lower in the five months to the end of May, official data showed.

A decline of 100 million tons this year would amount to a drop of 18.4% annually. Li did not give an indication of how much he expected imports of thermal coal and metallurgical coal to fall.

Thermal coal is mainly used in power generation, while metallurgical coal is used in steelmaking processes.

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Rising renewable output has helped China progressively cut dependence on thermal coal, which accounts for the bulk of coal consumption in the world’s second largest economy.

China’s total coal consumption could peak by 2027 or 2028, Li said, adding that the time period of near-peak consumption levels would be spread out over three to five years.