Weekly Cotton Review: Market witnesses overall decline in prices

KARACHI: According to Head Transfer of Technology Central Cotton Research Institute Multan Sajid Mahmood, cotton production across the country has decreased by 33% compared to last year, with Sindh being the most affected region. The market saw an overall decline in cotton prices, with rates dropping by Rs. 200 to Rs. 400 per maund in both Sindh and Punjab. In Punjab, cotton prices ranged between Rs. 16,400 to Rs. 16,700 per maund.

Experts suggest that the imposition of a sales tax on imported cotton is likely to increase demand for local cotton. Makhdoom Sohail Talat stated that this measure would benefit domestic growers. Meanwhile, Ahsan ul Haq, Chairman of the Ginners Forum, revealed that for the first time in the country’s history, cotton imports have exceeded local production. Sources related to cotton importers and agents reported that contracts for approximately 7.5 million bales have already been finalized with foreign suppliers, with further imports underway.

The Cotton Cess Payment Agreement is being hailed as a crucial step toward reviving cotton research in Pakistan. Sajid Mahmood stated that this agreement would pave the way for new research and development in the cotton sector. Additionally, APTMA has urged the Finance Minister to fulfill the promises made in the budget speech regarding the cotton sector without delay.

Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs, Muhammad Junaid Anwar Chaudhry, visited the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), where he emphasized the need to revive Pakistan’s cotton industry and address sector-related challenges. He assured that the government would take all necessary measures to modernize the cotton industry.

The local cotton market experienced an overall softening in prices last week, while trading volume remained steady. Large mill groups have shown increased interest in domestic cotton, though intermittent rains in several cotton-producing regions of Sindh and Punjab have disrupted supply. The arrival of phutti (seed cotton) has been limited, causing several ginning factories to operate partially. Some factories are producing only one lot every two days. Due to forecasted rains, many ginners are hesitant to purchase phutti, further affecting supply.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has announced the discontinuation of the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS), but an official notification is still pending.

For the first time this year, cotton imports have seen a significant rise compared to local production. Some import agents were asked about the volume of import contracts finalized this year. They estimated that in the previous year (2024-25), Pakistan imported approximately 6.5 million bales of cotton, each weighing 155 kg. For the new year (2025-26), around 1 million bales have already been contracted, bringing the total to roughly 7.5 million bales. This has resulted in foreign exchange expenditures of about $2 to $2.25 billion. Additionally, billions of dollars worth of oil, yarn, and fabric have also been imported.

In Sindh the price of cotton is in between Rs 16,100 to Rs 16,300 per maund while the price of phutti is in between Rs 6,700 to Rs 6,900 per 40 kg.

In Punjab the rate of cotton is in between Rs 16,400 to Rs 16,700 per maund, with phutti at Rs 6,800 to Rs 7,400 per 40 kg.

In Balochistan the rate of cotton in between Rs 16,100 to Rs 16,300 per maund and the price of phutti is in between Rs 6,900 to Rs 7,200 per 40 kg.

The Spot Rate Committee of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) kept the spot rate stable at Rs 16,300 per maund.

Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum Chairman Naseem Usman reported that international cotton prices remained stable, with New York cotton trading between 66 to 69 cents per pound. According to the USDA’s weekly export and sales report, 5,500 bales were sold for the 2024-25 season.

Vietnam purchased 7,060 bales, including 500 bales switched from South Korea. Peru bought 5,900 bales, while Bangladesh acquired 1,200 bales.

For the 2025-26 season, sales reached 73,000 bales, with Honduras leading purchases at 22,800 bales. Nicaragua followed with 13,200 bales, and Pakistan secured the third position with 8,900 bales.

The current cotton production scenario in Pakistan is becoming increasingly alarming. According to the latest report issued by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) as of July 15, 2025, a total of 297,751 bales have reached ginning factories across the country, compared to 442,041 bales during the same period last year. This represents a significant decline of over 32%, raising serious concerns for both the agricultural economy and the textile industry.

Punjab has shown relatively better performance, reporting 145,101 bales so far—an increase of nearly 27% compared to the same period last year. Notable contributions came from Vehari (33,950), Khanewal (28,825), Dera Ghazi Khan (19,397), and Rajanpur (9,200). Districts like Multan (3,700), Faisalabad (3,037), and Layyah (3,970) also reported moderate figures. However, the situation in Rahim Yar Khan remains alarming, with only 15 bales reported—a decline of over 99% compared to last year.

In contrast, Sindh’s performance has been dismal. Only 152,650 bales have been received so far this season, compared to 327,666 bales last year—marking a steep decline of more than 53%. While Sanghar continues to lead with 130,037 bales, it still reflects less than half of last year’s volume. Other districts reported minimal arrivals: Mirpurkhas (5,100), Nawabshah (1,100), and Jamshoro (1,500). Several districts have yet to report a single bale—signalling a deepening crisis.

Balochistan’s numbers are also discouraging, with only 5,100 bales reported so far, compared to 11,200 bales during the same period last year—a drop of 54%.

While Punjab shows signs of a partial recovery, the overall national supply chain is heavily impacted by Sindh’s sharp decline. The key reasons for this downturn in Sindh include acute water shortages, substandard seed quality, pest outbreaks, and adverse weather conditions.

Head Transfer of Technology Central Cotton Research Institute Multan Sajid Mahmood said that amidst this crisis, the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC) and the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), facilitated by the Ministry of National Food Security & Research, offers a glimmer of hope. Under this agreement, textile mills have agreed to resume payment of the long-pending cotton cess—potentially enabling the revival of stalled cotton research.

If implemented sincerely and transparently, this MoU could mark a significant step toward restoring research capacity and stabilizing cotton production in the years ahead.

Pakistan has witnessed a historic surge in the import of cotton and cotton yarn during FY25, with the volume of imports surpassing total domestic production for the first time — a development attributed to policy distortions and adverse weather, sparking alarm among industry stakeholders.

While textile exports posted a modest growth of 7.22pc, reaching $17.88bn, imports of textile-related products jumped to $4.24bn, reflecting a record increase of 61pc compared to the previous fiscal year, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Industry sources say the spike in imports is a direct outcome of multiple factors, including the earlier allowance of duty- and sales tax-free imports of cotton and yarn, high taxation on the domestic ginning industry, neglect of crop zoning regulations, and unfavourable climatic conditions that severely hampered local output.

Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, Ihsanul Haq, revealed that Pakistan’s cotton and cotton yarn imports have surged dramatically in the fiscal year 2024-25 due to record-low domestic production. Over the past few years, the textile industry has increasingly relied on imports due to tax-free unlimited cotton and yarn imports, excessive taxes on local cotton ginning, non-implementation of crop zoning laws, and adverse weather conditions.

This year, textile mills imported approximately 4.5 million bales of cotton and an equivalent of 1.5 million bales of cotton yarn from abroad. Despite Pakistan’s total cotton production hitting a historic low of only 5.5 million bales—the second-lowest in the country’s history—over 100,000 bales of ginned cotton remain unsold in ginning factories. This is largely attributed to the 18% sales tax imposed on local cotton, discouraging domestic procurement.

Haq highlighted that despite the sharp decline in cotton production, Pakistan continues to import billions of dollars worth of edible oil annually. He urged the government to enforce crop zoning laws, banning sugarcane cultivation and sugar mill operations in declared cotton zones to revive cotton farming and save billions in foreign exchange.

In FY 2024-25, Pakistan’s textile exports reached $17.88 billion, a modest 7.22% increase from the previous year. However, textile imports soared to $4.24 billion—a record 61% surge compared to the last fiscal year, as per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The recent federal budget withdrawal of sales tax exemptions on cotton and yarn imports may provide some relief to the domestic cotton industry. However, Haq stressed that the government must also revoke the over 86% sales tax on ginning factories to revive the sector. With more than 1,000 ginning factories and around 1,250 non-operational oil mills, industry recovery could boost cotton demand, improve farmer incomes, and strengthen the economy.

Additionally, imposing sales tax on imported cotton is expected to increase demand for locally produced cotton, providing further support to domestic growers.

The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has called on Federal Finance Minister Aurangzeb Khan to implement the commitments made during the budget speech. APTMA emphasized the need to impose an 18% sales tax on imports of cotton fiber, all types of yarn, and grey fabric while keeping these items under the Export Facilitation Scheme (EFS).

In a letter dated July 18, 2025, APTMA Chairman Kamran Arshad reminded the finance minister that the association’s original demand was to completely exclude these raw material imports from the EFS to protect the local industry from the adverse effects of unnecessary imports. However, during the budget announcement, the government pledged to ensure tax parity between local and imported supplies for exports, marking a significant reform.

APTMA is now urging the government to honour this promise to help address challenges faced by the domestic industry and boost exports. Over a month has passed since the budget speech, and nearly three weeks have elapsed since the budget’s approval.

In a major development for Pakistan’s cotton sector, Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Muhammad Junaid Anwar Chaudhry paid a visit to the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) on Thursday. He was accompanied by Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) Chairman Noorul Haq Baloch, along with several other distinguished guests.

Chairman KCA Khwaja Zubair, along with board members, senior brokers including Naseem Usman Sahib, and a large number of stakeholders—textile mill owners, cotton ginners, exporters, and agents—were present at the meeting.

An in-depth discussion was held on key challenges facing the cotton industry, such as poor seed quality, farmer difficulties, and the steady decline in national cotton production. Participants shared their insights and proposed various strategies for industry revival and sustainability.

Though his ministry is not directly linked to agriculture, Minister Junaid Anwar Chaudhry showed a deep understanding of the sector, attributing it to his family background in cotton farming and ginning. He reiterated the critical role of cotton as a backbone of Pakistan’s economy, and emphasized the need for coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors.

He encouraged stakeholders to actively collaborate with the government for the revival and modernization of the cotton sector, assuring them of his full cooperation and support in any matter related to industry improvement and farmer welfare.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025