Will 5G actually improve internet access for ordinary Pakistanis?

Much has been said about Pakistan’s plans to auction 5G spectrum. The conversation is already wrapped in familiar language such as digital leapfrogging, future readiness, and global competitiveness. Before the gavel falls on 5G, however, it is worth asking a more practical question. Who will actually use 5G. Will it meaningfully improve internet access for ordinary Pakistanis or are we once again mistaking a technology label for real progress.

Technology introduction by itself does not transform societies. Using that technology does. Pakistan’s digital future will not be determined by how quickly a new network icon appears on mobile screens, but by whether people can afford the devices needed to use those networks and find enough everyday value to actually use them.

Today, it is worth examining how closely our aspirations align with the realities of access, affordability, and usability faced by most consumers.

The device reality on the ground

At present, only an estimated two percent of mobile users on Pakistan’s networks own a 5G enabled handset. Devices currently available in the market remain beyond the reach of most consumers, with prices ranging from around PKR 90,000 for an entry level 5G handset to PKR 700,000 for a top iPhone variant. The average 5G device costs roughly PKR 250,000, equivalent to around seven months of income for an average Pakistani. In a country where the majority of users are prepaid and incomes are modest, this price point alone excludes most Pakistanis from participating in any meaningful 5G experience.

Pakistan’s digital future will not be determined by how quickly a new network icon appears on mobile screens, but by whether people can afford the devices needed to use those networks and find enough everyday value to actually use them.

The local manufacturing landscape reinforces this demand side constraint. Between 2019 and November 2025, Pakistan assembled approximately 152 million mobile devices locally. Of this total, almost 60 percent were 2G basic feature phones. Although smartphone assembly has increased in recent years, cumulative production remains heavily weighted toward low cost devices, reflecting persistent affordability constraints faced by the common person.

In 2025 to date, total local assembly stands at about 27 million devices, of which approximately 13 million were 2G feature phones. Within the smartphone segment, local assembly remains concentrated almost entirely on entry level 4G devices, with 5G smartphones effectively absent from domestic manufacturing.

This is not a matter of intent, but of economics and readiness. Integrating 5G capability into a handset increases manufacturing cost considerably compared with similar 4G devices, largely because of more complex modems and radio components. Industry analysis suggests that adding 5G support typically increases the bill of materials by almost 30 dollars per device. In a market as price sensitive as Pakistan, even relatively small increases in production cost can result in retail prices moving out of reach for mass market consumers.

Beyond cost, shifting assembly lines to support 5G requires tooling changes, testing, certification, and supplier realignment. This is a process that usually takes several months even under ideal conditions. In practical terms, this means that even with immediate policy clarity, the local manufacturing ecosystem will not be able to pivot for another six to twelve months. Without deliberate measures to address affordability and financing, producers will continue to focus on low cost 4G devices that match consumer purchasing power, while 5G handsets remain confined to imported and higher priced segments serving a narrow urban base.

Why handset affordability matters more than rollout timelines

Pakistan’s market structure further complicates this transition. Unlike many developed economies, mobile operators here do not sell handsets, and installment plans bundled with tariff plans are largely absent. This reflects the absence of a meaningful consumer credit scoring ecosystem and banks’ reluctance to finance lower value consumer products, where recovery costs can outweigh returns. The result is straightforward. Consumers are constrained to pay the full smartphone price upfront.

In mature markets, most 5G handsets are sold through installment plans offered by operators and bundled with higher value service plans. These models rely on predictable credit systems, higher incomes, and long-term customer contracts. Pakistan, by contrast, is overwhelmingly a low-end prepaid market, with industry average revenue per user barely above one dollar, among the lowest in the world. Adoption pathways that work elsewhere cannot simply be transplanted here without deliberate policy adaptation.

In its current form, 5G in Pakistan risks becoming an elite capture technology, accessible to a small minority with high end smartphones while the majority continue to struggle with basic affordability and usability.

This is why device financing is not optional for 5G success in Pakistan. It is a prerequisite. Policy discussions often focus on rollout obligations, emphasising network deployment, quality of service parameters, and capital investment. While such measures may expand coverage, they do little to stimulate demand. Without affordable 5G handsets in consumers’ hands, forced rollout becomes a two-edged sword. It pushes operators to spend scarce foreign exchange on expensive imported equipment without having the customer base that can pay for it. An expensive and empty 5G network would add insult to injury. That would not be a marginal shortcoming. It would be a national failure.

The usability gap and the digital divide

Even where coverage exists and smartphones are present, a deeper issue persists. Millions of Pakistanis live within network coverage yet remain digitally excluded because they lack digital skills, local language content, trust in online services, or practical reasons to stay connected. This is the less visible side of the digital divide. It is not just about who has a signal, but who can actually benefit from it.

The experience with 4G illustrates this clearly. More than ten years after Pakistan’s first mobile broadband auction, roughly one in four mobile customers still does not use 4G services, with approximately 144 million 4G subscribers out of 196 million mobile connections as of November 2025. This is not merely a coverage problem. It reflects affordability constraints, limited digital literacy, and a gap between connectivity and meaningful use.

If these usability barriers remain unaddressed, 5G risks widening rather than narrowing the digital divide. Faster networks alone will not bring first time users online, nor will they automatically translate into better education, healthcare, or livelihoods. Without parallel investment in affordability, digital skills, and relevant local services, higher speeds will benefit those already well connected while leaving others further behind.

The risk of elite capture

The risk ahead is clear. In its current form, 5G in Pakistan risks becoming an elite capture technology, accessible to a small minority with high end smartphones while the majority continue to struggle with basic affordability and usability. Without handsets and without the ability to use digital services meaningfully, consumers will not experience faster speeds, lower latency, or the benefits often referenced in policy discussions.

If the objective of the 5G auction is to make Pakistan a truly digital nation, then auction design must account for the demand side. This means enabling handset availability alongside spectrum allocation. In a country where credit scoring remains limited, government and regulators will need to be creative. This could include risk sharing mechanisms, targeted relief on device taxation, or frameworks that allow operators and banks to offer installment plans safely and at scale.

Ultimately, the success of 5G will not be measured by auction receipts or coverage maps. It will be measured by how many Pakistanis can afford to participate and actually participate in the digital economy it promises to enable. Ten years after the 4G auction, the receipts have been consumed and forgotten. What remains is a slow and uneven broadband experience where a significant share of citizens is still offline.

This is not an argument against 5G. It is an argument against misplaced urgency. In markets like Pakistan, 5G is best understood as a long-term evolution rather than an immediate consumer necessity. If introduced without addressing affordability, usability, and demand, it risks diverting scarce capital away from strengthening 4G, expanding fibre backhaul, and improving everyday network reliability, the very factors that shape real consumer experience.

Pakistan does not need to win a race defined elsewhere. It needs to deliver a digital future that works for its people. Inclusive, affordable, and usable. If the affordability and usability challenges are addressed head on, 5G can become a genuine upgrade. If they are not, no amount of spectrum will turn ambition into adoption.

The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners