Jul-Nov food exports decline 38% YoY: minister

LAHORE: Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Rana Tanveer Hussain has expressed grave concern over Pakistan’s declining food exports, revealing that they dropped to USD1.95 billion between July and November, down from USD3.15 billion during the same period last year — a staggering 38 percent decline.

Speaking at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI) on Friday, the minister described the situation as “extremely alarming” and outlined multiple factors contributing to this worrying trend.

Minister Hussain identified several key reasons for the sharp fall in agricultural exports, including low per-acre crop yields, inadequate investment in research and development, smuggling of agricultural goods, hoarding practices, and inconsistent government policies.

He highlighted a critical demographic challenge facing the nation: Pakistan’s population is growing by approximately 4.7 million people annually, while agricultural production and food supply are failing to keep pace. This growing imbalance, he warned, poses serious risks for the country’s future food security.

Providing detailed figures, the minister revealed that rice exports suffered the most severe blow, plummeting nearly 50 percent from USD1.5 billion to USD769 million. Vegetable exports declined by 39 percent, falling from USD110 million to USD66 million, while oilseeds and nuts exports witnessed a dramatic 64 percent drop, shrinking from USD262 million to merely USD92 million.

The situation regarding per-acre agricultural productivity is equally concerning. Over the past two years, yields for major crops have consistently declined. Wheat production decreased from 3,200 kilograms per acre, rice yields fell from 2,714 kilograms to 1,494 kilograms per acre, and cotton production dropped to just 590 kilograms per acre.

Minister Hussain stated that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is deeply concerned about the declining exports and has directed government officials to engage directly with the business community to provide every possible support for reversing this trend. He acknowledged that high production costs, expensive energy, and a complicated tax system are creating major obstacles for exporters.

The minister emphasized that consultation with the business community has been more extensive during the past two years than ever before. The Prime Minister has established working groups for different sectors, led by representatives from the business community, to ensure that ground realities are incorporated into policy-making.

Outlining the government’s broader economic strategy, the federal minister said the goal is to promote an export-based economy to reduce the current account deficit. He shared some positive developments, noting that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have reached USD21 billion. The policy rate has decreased from 22 percent to 12.5 percent and is expected to reach single digits within the next one to one and a half years.

However, he cautioned that while remittances provide temporary relief, they are not a permanent solution. “The real solution lies in increasing exports,” he stated, adding that agriculture is the backbone of the economy and that national security cannot be achieved without food security.

Minister Hussain expressed confidence that Pakistan possesses vast resources, skilled human capital, and strategic geographic advantages, but stressed that progress requires focus, hard work, and consistency from both the government and the business community. He assured attendees that their recommendations would be conveyed to the Prime Minister and relevant forums, pledging full support to boost exports.

LCCI President Faheem ur Rehman Saigol, who welcomed the minister along with Senior Vice President Tanveer Ahmed Sheikh, Vice President Khurram Lodhi, and Executive Committee members Ahad Amin Malik, Shoaib Akhtar, Aamir Ali, and Iftikhar Ahmed, warned that if the current export decline continues, maintaining the rupee’s artificial stability will become impossible. Further depreciation, he cautioned, would increase both inflation and industrial costs.

Saigol pointed out that Pakistan is fundamentally a textile-based economy, with approximately 60 percent of exports linked to textiles. However, declining cotton production and quality are undermining value addition. He noted that long-staple cotton is being exported while short-staple cotton is used domestically, which limits the export potential of high-quality value-added textiles and garments.

The LCCI President identified high electricity and energy prices as the biggest threats to export competitiveness and demanded the immediate removal of the infrastructure cess imposed by the Sindh government. He revealed that exporters have paid approximately USD9.15 billion under this cess, yet there has been no transparent audit of how these funds have been utilized.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025