Soybeans ease from three-month peak on trade uncertainty

PARIS/SINGAPORE: Chicago soybean futures edged lower on Tuesday, moving back from a three-month high as investors grappled with upheaval in U.S. tariff policy and the consequences for Chinese demand as the Asian country returned from Lunar New Year holidays, analysts and traders said.

Wheat steadied near an eight-month peak struck in the previous session, with traders monitoring Northern Hemisphere weather risks and U.S.-Iran tensions that had fuelled short-covering in the cereal last week.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.5% at $11.44-1/4 a bushel at 1259 GMT. On Monday it had reached its highest since November 18 at $11.65 before closing lower.

The soybean market is watching to see how China, the world’s biggest importer, reacts to U.S. tariff changes. The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down Donald Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs, leading the president to announce a new general rate of 10% that he later said would rise to 15%.

The 10% tariff came into effect on Tuesday on all goods not covered by exemptions, the U.S. customs authority said.

READ MORE: Soybeans fall for second session on US tariff uncertainty

The changes have raised doubts over whether China will extend purchases of U.S. soybeans that had resumed following a trade truce in late October. Expectations that Beijing would make fresh purchases had spurred this month’s rally in Chicago.

“Soybeans hope to see buying interest from China, which just returned from Lunar New Year holidays,” Andrey Sizov, head of consultancy Sovecon, said, adding, “The doubts are growing after the SCOTUS (Supreme Court) ruling last week.”

Reduced tariff pressure from Washington could encourage China to focus on booking supplies from an expected record Brazilian crop, though immediate competition from Brazil may be curbed by relatively slow harvest progress.

Brazilian farmers had harvested 30% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, the slowest pace in five years, consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

“We don’t see a big upside in soybean prices unless we see China buying U.S. cargoes,” said one oilseed trader in Singapore. “Buyers are preferring to take Brazilian cargoes which are much cheaper.”

CBOT wheat added 0.1% to $5.74-1/4 a bushel, after hitting its highest since June 23 at $5.83-1/2 on Monday. Corn was down 0.1% at $4.39-3/4 a bushel.

Short-covering in wheat fuelled by the threat of U.S. military strikes against Iran appeared to have paused, Sizov said.